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Homeboyz vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2025

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bidco United
Bidco United
O. Majak 90'
K. Ouma 72' (OG)
H. Omollo 33'
D. Murunga 31'
10/15/2025FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 3Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Homeboyz48%
×Draw28%
Bidco United24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.38
Bidco United
0.89

Homeboyz creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 34 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.67
Bidco United
0.71

allows per match

Homeboyz
1.06
Bidco United
1.09

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
76%
Homeboyz or Bidco United
72%
Draw or Bidco United
52%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
23%
Bidco United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
75%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
40%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
16%
Bidco United 1+ goals
59%
Bidco United 2+ goals
22%
Bidco United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
67%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.67 + Bidco United defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bidco United attack 0.71 + Homeboyz defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Homeboyz scores more
48%
level
28%
Bidco United scores more
24%

Homeboyz at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
D. Murunga
33'
H. Omollo
72'
K. OumaOwn goal
90'
O. Majak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Homeboyz 3–1 Bidco United

Homeboyz beat Bidco United 3-1 in FKF Premier League on October 15, 2025.

Goals: D. Murunga (31'), H. Omollo (33'), K. Ouma (72' o.g.), O. Majak (90').

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.