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Homeboyz vs Bidco United — FKF Premier League 2018

Homeboyz
Homeboyz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bidco United
Bidco United
12/3/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 12Bukhungu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Homeboyz45%
×Draw29%
Bidco United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.23
Bidco United
0.84

Homeboyz creates 46% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 101 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.41
Bidco United
0.85

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.84
Bidco United
1.04

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Bidco United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Bidco United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
75%
Homeboyz or Bidco United
71%
Draw or Bidco United
55%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
20%
Bidco United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
71%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
35%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
13%
Bidco United 1+ goals
57%
Bidco United 2+ goals
21%
Bidco United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
64%
Bidco United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 146 matches

Bidco United away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.04 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.41 + Bidco United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bidco United attack 0.85 + Homeboyz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Homeboyz scores more
45%
level
29%
Bidco United scores more
25%

Homeboyz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homeboyz vs Bidco United

Homeboyz beat Bidco United 1-0 in FKF Premier League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Bukhungu Stadium in Kakamega.