Home United 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Result & Stats

Home United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

L. Thy 20'

Y. Nakajima 34'

3/12/2025

AFC Cup · Quarter-finalsJalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Home United40%

×Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Home UnitedExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.48

Home United

1.56

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

2.32

creates per match

1.80

1.16

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Home United

2.32

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.80

allows per match

Home United

1.16

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Home United+0.00on par

Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Home United or draw

64%

Home United or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

76%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

60%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+

20%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals

79%

Home United 2+ goals

46%

Home United 3+ goals

21%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

77%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

43%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)

52%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 2.32 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.80 + Home United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Home United scores more

40%

level

24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

36%

Home United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Home United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

Y. Nakajima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · M

8.2

Match Events

15'

S. Anuar← M. Lestienne

20'

L. Thy↳ S. Anuar

34'

46'

51'

51'

61'

61'

61'

T. Yamasaki← H. Araki

71'

S. Koshimichi← S. Nakamura

84'

Ali Al Rina← L. Tan

90+5'

Obren Kljajić

90+2'

O. Kljajić← S. Anuar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HomeSanfrecce

Overview

26%Possession74%

3Total Shots17

1Corners12

9Fouls4

Shots

3Total Shots17

1On Target4

2Off Target7

0Blocked6

3Inside Box15

0Outside Box2

Passing

26%Possession74%

210Total Passes532

125Accurate Passes456

60%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls4

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3