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Home United vs Port FC — AFC Cup 2018

Home United
Home United
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Port FC
Port FC
12/5/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Home United56%
×Draw21%
Port FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Home United
2.04
Port FC
1.21

Home United creates 69% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Home United
2.32
Port FC
1.25

allows per match

Home United
1.16
Port FC
1.75

finishing

Home United+0.00on par
Port FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Port FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Home United or draw
78%
Home United or Port FC
79%
Draw or Port FC
44%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+
34%
Port FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals
87%
Home United 2+ goals
60%
Home United 3+ goals
33%
Port FC 1+ goals
70%
Port FC 2+ goals
34%
Port FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)
72%
Port FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Port FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 2.32 + Port FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Port FC attack 1.25 + Home United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Home United scores more
56%
level
21%
Port FC scores more
22%

Home United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Home United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Home United vs Port FC

Home United beat Port FC 5-2 in AFC Cup on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium in Singapore.