Home United 3–2 Persija Jakarta: Result & Stats

Home United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Persija Jakarta

5/8/2018

AFC Cup · Zonal Semi-FinalsJalan Besar Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Home United56%

×Draw21%

Persija Jakarta23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Home UnitedExpected goals in this matchPersija Jakarta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.29

Home United

2.09

Persija Jakarta

1.29

Home United creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

2.32

creates per match

1.43

1.16

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Home United

2.32

Persija Jakarta

1.43

allows per match

Home United

1.16

Persija Jakarta

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Home United+0.00on par

Persija Jakarta+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Persija Jakarta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Home United or draw

77%

Home United or Persija Jakarta

79%

Draw or Persija Jakarta

44%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+

33%

Persija Jakarta wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals

88%

Home United 2+ goals

62%

Home United 3+ goals

34%

Persija Jakarta 1+ goals

72%

Persija Jakarta 2+ goals

37%

Persija Jakarta 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)

70%

Persija Jakarta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Persija Jakarta away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 2.32 + Persija Jakarta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.09

Persija Jakarta attack 1.43 + Home United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Home United scores more

56%

level

21%

Persija Jakarta scores more

23%

Home United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Home United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff