Home United 2–0 Hangzhou Greentown: Result & Stats

Home United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

9/19/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Home United58%

×Draw21%

Hangzhou Greentown22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Home UnitedExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.25

Home United

2.16

Hangzhou Greentown

1.25

Home United creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 3 away

2.32

creates per match

1.33

1.16

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Home United

2.32

Hangzhou Greentown

1.33

allows per match

Home United

1.16

Hangzhou Greentown

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Home United+0.00on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Home United or draw

78%

Home United or Hangzhou Greentown

79%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

42%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+

35%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals

88%

Home United 2+ goals

63%

Home United 3+ goals

36%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

71%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

36%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)

73%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 2.32 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.33 + Home United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Home United scores more

58%

level

21%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

22%

Home United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Home United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff