Home United 0–0 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Home United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Buriram United

1/23/2025

ASEAN Club Championship · Group Stage - 4Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Home United32%

×Draw27%

Buriram United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Home UnitedExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.31

Home United

1.13

Buriram United

1.31

Buriram United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

1.63

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Home United

1.25

Buriram United

1.63

allows per match

Home United

1.00

Buriram United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Home United+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Home United or draw

59%

Home United or Buriram United

73%

Draw or Buriram United

68%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+

13%

Buriram United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals

68%

Home United 2+ goals

31%

Home United 3+ goals

11%

Buriram United 1+ goals

73%

Buriram United 2+ goals

38%

Buriram United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)

44%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Buriram United away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 1.25 + Buriram United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Buriram United attack 1.63 + Home United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Home United scores more

32%

level

27%

Buriram United scores more

41%

Buriram United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff