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Home Stars vs Koforidua — Division One League 2025

Home Stars
Home Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Koforidua
Koforidua
3/8/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Home Stars31%
×Draw33%
Koforidua36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Home Stars
0.83
Koforidua
0.93

Koforidua creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Home Stars
0.93
Koforidua
1.40

allows per match

Home Stars
0.47
Koforidua
0.73

finishing

Home Stars+0.00on par
Koforidua+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home Stars ↓

Koforidua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Home Stars or draw
64%
Home Stars or Koforidua
67%
Draw or Koforidua
69%

Winning margin

Home Stars wins by 2+
10%
Koforidua wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Home Stars 1+ goals
56%
Home Stars 2+ goals
20%
Home Stars 3+ goals
5%
Koforidua 1+ goals
61%
Koforidua 2+ goals
24%
Koforidua 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Home Stars (draw refunded)
46%
Koforidua (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home Stars at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Koforidua away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home Stars attack 0.93 + Koforidua defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.83

Koforidua attack 1.40 + Home Stars defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Home Stars scores more
31%
level
33%
Koforidua scores more
36%

Koforidua at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Koforidua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Home Stars vs Koforidua

Home Stars beat Koforidua 1-0 in Division One League on March 8, 2026.