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Home Stars vs Hakla SC — Division One League 2025

Home Stars
Home Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hakla SC
Hakla SC
2/1/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Home Stars44%
×Draw30%
Hakla SC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Home Stars
1.17
Hakla SC
0.80

Home Stars creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Home Stars
0.93
Hakla SC
1.13

allows per match

Home Stars
0.47
Hakla SC
1.40

finishing

Home Stars+0.00on par
Hakla SC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home Stars ↓

Hakla SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Home Stars or draw
75%
Home Stars or Hakla SC
70%
Draw or Hakla SC
56%

Winning margin

Home Stars wins by 2+
19%
Hakla SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Home Stars 1+ goals
69%
Home Stars 2+ goals
33%
Home Stars 3+ goals
11%
Hakla SC 1+ goals
55%
Hakla SC 2+ goals
19%
Hakla SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Home Stars (draw refunded)
64%
Hakla SC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home Stars at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Hakla SC away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home Stars attack 0.93 + Hakla SC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hakla SC attack 1.13 + Home Stars defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Home Stars scores more
44%
level
30%
Hakla SC scores more
25%

Home Stars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Home Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Home Stars vs Hakla SC

Home Stars beat Hakla SC 2-0 in Division One League on February 1, 2026.