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Home Stars vs Attram de Visser — Division One League 2025

Home Stars
Home Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Attram de Visser
Attram de Visser
11/9/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Home Stars29%
×Draw31%
Attram de Visser40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Home Stars
0.86
Attram de Visser
1.07

Attram de Visser creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Home Stars
0.93
Attram de Visser
1.67

allows per match

Home Stars
0.47
Attram de Visser
0.80

finishing

Home Stars+0.00on par
Attram de Visser+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home Stars ↓

Attram de Visser →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Home Stars or draw
60%
Home Stars or Attram de Visser
69%
Draw or Attram de Visser
71%

Winning margin

Home Stars wins by 2+
10%
Attram de Visser wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Home Stars 1+ goals
58%
Home Stars 2+ goals
21%
Home Stars 3+ goals
6%
Attram de Visser 1+ goals
66%
Attram de Visser 2+ goals
29%
Attram de Visser 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Home Stars (draw refunded)
42%
Attram de Visser (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home Stars at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.47 · 15 matches

Attram de Visser away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home Stars attack 0.93 + Attram de Visser defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Attram de Visser attack 1.67 + Home Stars defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Home Stars scores more
29%
level
31%
Attram de Visser scores more
40%

Attram de Visser at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Attram de Visser will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Home Stars 1–0 Attram de Visser

Home Stars beat Attram de Visser 1-0 in Division One League on November 9, 2025.