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Hombourg-Haut vs Amiens — Coupe de France 2018

Hombourg-Haut
Hombourg-Haut
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Amiens
Amiens
11/18/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade Omnisport Raymond Litzenburger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hombourg-Haut15%
×Draw22%
Amiens63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hombourg-Haut
0.76
Amiens
1.85

Amiens creates 143% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hombourg-Haut
0.80
Amiens
2.11

allows per match

Hombourg-Haut
1.60
Amiens
0.72

finishing

Hombourg-Haut+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hombourg-Haut ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hombourg-Haut or draw
37%
Hombourg-Haut or Amiens
78%
Draw or Amiens
85%

Winning margin

Hombourg-Haut wins by 2+
4%
Amiens wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Hombourg-Haut 1+ goals
53%
Hombourg-Haut 2+ goals
18%
Hombourg-Haut 3+ goals
4%
Amiens 1+ goals
84%
Amiens 2+ goals
55%
Amiens 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hombourg-Haut (draw refunded)
19%
Amiens (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hombourg-Haut at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Amiens away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hombourg-Haut attack 0.80 + Amiens defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.76

Amiens attack 2.11 + Hombourg-Haut defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hombourg-Haut scores more
15%
level
22%
Amiens scores more
63%

Amiens at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Hombourg-Haut 0–3 Amiens

Amiens beat Hombourg-Haut 3-0 in Coupe de France on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Raymond Litzenburger in Hombourg-Haut.