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Homberg vs TVD Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Homberg
Homberg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
TVD Velbert
TVD Velbert
2/25/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 20PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Homberg54%
×Draw22%
TVD Velbert24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
1.97
TVD Velbert
1.24

Homberg creates 59% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 72 away

creates per match

Homberg
1.87
TVD Velbert
1.38

allows per match

Homberg
1.10
TVD Velbert
2.07

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

TVD Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
76%
Homberg or TVD Velbert
78%
Draw or TVD Velbert
46%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
32%
TVD Velbert wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
86%
Homberg 2+ goals
58%
Homberg 3+ goals
31%
TVD Velbert 1+ goals
71%
TVD Velbert 2+ goals
35%
TVD Velbert 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
69%
TVD Velbert (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.97

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Homberg scores more
54%
level
22%
TVD Velbert scores more
24%

Homberg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Homberg 2–0 TVD Velbert

Homberg beat TVD Velbert 2-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at PCC-Stadion in Duisburg.