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Homberg vs Sterkrade-Nord — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Homberg
Homberg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
Unknown 43'
Unknown 89'
7/14/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Homberg68%
×Draw17%
Sterkrade-Nord15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
2.50
Sterkrade-Nord
1.08

Homberg creates 131% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Homberg
2.00
Sterkrade-Nord
1.50

allows per match

Homberg
0.67
Sterkrade-Nord
3.00

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

Sterkrade-Nord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
85%
Homberg or Sterkrade-Nord
83%
Draw or Sterkrade-Nord
32%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
46%
Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
92%
Homberg 2+ goals
71%
Homberg 3+ goals
45%
Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
66%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
29%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
82%
Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sterkrade-Nord away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 2.00 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sterkrade-Nord attack 1.50 + Homberg defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Homberg scores more
68%
level
17%
Sterkrade-Nord scores more
15%

Homberg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
89'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homberg vs Sterkrade-Nord

Homberg and Sterkrade-Nord drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2023.

Goals: ? (43', 89').