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Homberg vs Kray — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Homberg
Homberg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kray
Kray
6/4/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 42PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Homberg63%
×Draw20%
Kray17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
2.17
Kray
1.05

Homberg creates 107% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 40 away

creates per match

Homberg
1.87
Kray
1.00

allows per match

Homberg
1.10
Kray
2.48

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
Kray+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

Kray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
83%
Homberg or Kray
80%
Draw or Kray
37%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
39%
Kray wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
89%
Homberg 2+ goals
64%
Homberg 3+ goals
36%
Kray 1+ goals
65%
Kray 2+ goals
28%
Kray 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
78%
Kray (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

Kray away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.48 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + Kray defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.17

Kray attack 1.00 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Homberg scores more
63%
level
20%
Kray scores more
17%

Homberg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Homberg 3–1 Kray

Homberg beat Kray 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at PCC-Stadion in Duisburg.