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Homberg vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Homberg
Homberg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
8/13/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 1PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Homberg45%
×Draw24%
KFC Uerdingen 0531%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
1.64
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.31

Homberg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 53 away

creates per match

Homberg
1.87
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

Homberg
1.10
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
69%
Homberg or KFC Uerdingen 05
76%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
55%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
81%
Homberg 2+ goals
49%
Homberg 3+ goals
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
73%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
38%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
60%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.64

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Homberg scores more
45%
level
24%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
31%

Homberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homberg vs KFC Uerdingen 05

Homberg and KFC Uerdingen 05 drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at PCC-Stadion in Duisburg.