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Homberg vs Germania Ratingen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Homberg
Homberg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Germania Ratingen
Germania Ratingen
5/4/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Homberg45%
×Draw23%
Germania Ratingen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
1.77
Germania Ratingen
1.48

Homberg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 91 away

creates per match

Homberg
1.87
Germania Ratingen
1.85

allows per match

Homberg
1.10
Germania Ratingen
1.67

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
Germania Ratingen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

Germania Ratingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
68%
Homberg or Germania Ratingen
77%
Draw or Germania Ratingen
55%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
24%
Germania Ratingen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
83%
Homberg 2+ goals
53%
Homberg 3+ goals
26%
Germania Ratingen 1+ goals
77%
Germania Ratingen 2+ goals
43%
Germania Ratingen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
58%
Germania Ratingen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

Germania Ratingen away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.67 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + Germania Ratingen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Germania Ratingen attack 1.85 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Homberg scores more
45%
level
23%
Germania Ratingen scores more
32%

Homberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homberg vs Germania Ratingen

Homberg beat Germania Ratingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at PCC-Stadion in Duisburg.