Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Homberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Homberg
Homberg
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
M. Blank 68', 11'
R. Ouro-Akpo 50'
C. D. Tonnies 77'
A. Pesa 53'
N. Nikolaou 23'
7/19/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Homberg44%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
1.96
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.71

Homberg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Homberg
2.25
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
2.17

allows per match

Homberg
1.25
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
1.67

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
66%
Homberg or Fortuna Düsseldorf II
78%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf II
56%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
86%
Homberg 2+ goals
58%
Homberg 3+ goals
31%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals
82%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
56%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 2.25 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 2.17 + Homberg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Homberg scores more
44%
level
22%
Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more
34%

Homberg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Blank
23'
N. Nikolaou
50'
R. Ouro-Akpo
53'
A. Pesa
68'
M. Blank
77'
C. D. Tonnies
Homberg
Fortuna
T. Schiek
Manager: T. Schiek
J. Langeneke
Manager: J. Langeneke

Friendlies Clubs: Homberg 3–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf II

Homberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf II drew 3-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 19, 2026.

Goals: M. Blank (11', 68'), N. Nikolaou (23'), R. Ouro-Akpo (50'), A. Pesa (53'), C. D. Tonnies (77').