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Homberg vs Cronenberger SC — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Homberg
Homberg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
2/17/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 25PCC-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Homberg61%
×Draw20%
Cronenberger SC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homberg
2.17
Cronenberger SC
1.11

Homberg creates 95% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 42 away

creates per match

Homberg
1.87
Cronenberger SC
1.12

allows per match

Homberg
1.10
Cronenberger SC
2.48

finishing

Homberg+0.00on par
Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homberg ↓

Cronenberger SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Homberg or draw
81%
Homberg or Cronenberger SC
80%
Draw or Cronenberger SC
39%

Winning margin

Homberg wins by 2+
38%
Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Homberg 1+ goals
89%
Homberg 2+ goals
64%
Homberg 3+ goals
36%
Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
67%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
30%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Homberg (draw refunded)
77%
Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homberg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

Cronenberger SC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.48 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homberg attack 1.87 + Cronenberger SC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.17

Cronenberger SC attack 1.12 + Homberg defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Homberg scores more
61%
level
20%
Cronenberger SC scores more
19%

Homberg at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Homberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Homberg 2–1 Cronenberger SC

Homberg beat Cronenberger SC 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 17, 2023.

The match was played at PCC-Stadion in Duisburg.