Holzwickeder SC vs Sprockhovel

Holzwickeder SC

CANC

14:00

Sprockhovel

10/25/2020

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 10Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC37%

×Draw22%

Sprockhovel42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holzwickeder SCExpected goals in this matchSprockhovel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.90

Holzwickeder SC

1.77

Sprockhovel

1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 70 away

1.56

creates per match

1.36

2.44

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC

1.56

Sprockhovel

1.36

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC

2.44

Sprockhovel

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Sprockhovel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

Sprockhovel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw

58%

Holzwickeder SC or Sprockhovel

78%

Draw or Sprockhovel

63%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+

19%

Sprockhovel wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals

83%

Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals

53%

Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals

26%

Sprockhovel 1+ goals

85%

Sprockhovel 2+ goals

56%

Sprockhovel 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)

47%

Sprockhovel (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

Sprockhovel away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.99 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + Sprockhovel defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sprockhovel attack 1.36 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more

37%

level

22%

Sprockhovel scores more

42%

Sprockhovel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sprockhovel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff