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Holzwickeder SC vs Ennepetal — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
CANC
13:00
Ennepetal
Ennepetal
4/18/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 32Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC38%
×Draw22%
Ennepetal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
1.85
Ennepetal
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
Ennepetal
1.33

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
Ennepetal
2.14

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
Ennepetal+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

Ennepetal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
60%
Holzwickeder SC or Ennepetal
78%
Draw or Ennepetal
62%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
20%
Ennepetal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
84%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
55%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
28%
Ennepetal 1+ goals
85%
Ennepetal 2+ goals
56%
Ennepetal 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
49%
Ennepetal (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

Ennepetal away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.14 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + Ennepetal defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.85

Ennepetal attack 1.33 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
38%
level
22%
Ennepetal scores more
40%

Ennepetal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ennepetal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Holzwickeder SC vs Ennepetal — Match Preview

Holzwickeder SC face Ennepetal on April 18, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Holzwickeder SC host Ennepetal at Montanhydraulik-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.