Holstein Kiel 1–1 SV Elversberg: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SV Elversberg

2/28/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 24Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Holstein Kiel39%

×Draw24%

SV Elversberg37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchSV Elversberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.47

Holstein Kiel

1.52

SV Elversberg

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 51 away

1.63

creates per match

1.57

1.37

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.63

SV Elversberg

1.57

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.37

SV Elversberg

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

SV Elversberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

63%

Holstein Kiel or SV Elversberg

76%

Draw or SV Elversberg

61%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

19%

SV Elversberg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

78%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

45%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

20%

SV Elversberg 1+ goals

77%

SV Elversberg 2+ goals

43%

SV Elversberg 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

51%

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

39%

level

24%

SV Elversberg scores more

37%

Holstein Kiel at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff