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Holstein Kiel vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
4/5/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 28Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Holstein Kiel48%
×Draw24%
Preußen Münster28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel
1.71
Preußen Münster
1.26

Holstein Kiel creates 36% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 34 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel
1.63
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

Holstein Kiel
1.37
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw
72%
Holstein Kiel or Preußen Münster
76%
Draw or Preußen Münster
52%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+
26%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals
82%
Holstein Kiel 2+ goals
51%
Holstein Kiel 3+ goals
24%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
72%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
36%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)
63%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more
48%
level
24%
Preußen Münster scores more
28%

Holstein Kiel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel 0–0 Preußen Münster

Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Holstein-Stadion in Kiel.