Holstein Kiel 1–2 Hannover 96: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Hannover 96

8/30/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 4Holstein-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Holstein Kiel42%

×Draw24%

Hannover 9634%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein KielExpected goals in this matchHannover 96

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.39

Holstein Kiel

1.58

Hannover 96

1.39

Holstein Kiel creates 14% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

1.63

creates per match

1.40

1.37

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Holstein Kiel

1.63

Hannover 96

1.40

allows per match

Holstein Kiel

1.37

Hannover 96

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel+0.00on par

Hannover 96+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel ↓

Hannover 96 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel or draw

66%

Holstein Kiel or Hannover 96

76%

Draw or Hannover 96

58%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel wins by 2+

21%

Hannover 96 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel 1+ goals

79%

Holstein Kiel 2+ goals

47%

Holstein Kiel 3+ goals

21%

Hannover 96 1+ goals

75%

Hannover 96 2+ goals

40%

Hannover 96 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel (draw refunded)

56%

Hannover 96 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.37 · 119 matches

Hannover 96 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.53 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel attack 1.63 + Hannover 96 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hannover 96 attack 1.40 + Holstein Kiel defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Holstein Kiel scores more

42%

level

24%

Hannover 96 scores more

34%

Holstein Kiel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Holstein Kiel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff