Holstein Kiel U19 3–6 Werder Bremen U19

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

3 – 6

HT: 1 – 3

Werder Bremen U19

M. Sinanović 63' (pen)

P. Kruse 58'

P. Erfmann 43'

T. Winkelmann 87', 11', 10'

S. Abbey 82'

L. Opitz 78'

L. Urban 31'

4/15/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 3Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1931%

×Draw21%

Werder Bremen U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.15

Holstein Kiel U19

1.71

Werder Bremen U19

2.15

Werder Bremen U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 71 away

1.51

creates per match

2.21

2.08

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

Werder Bremen U19

2.21

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Werder Bremen U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

52%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Werder Bremen U19

79%

Draw or Werder Bremen U19

69%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

15%

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

82%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

51%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

24%

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

88%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

63%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

48%

Werder Bremen U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

11'

31'

43'

46'

L. Steffen← A. Hrnjicic

46'

S. Abbey← N. Tepe

58'

P. Kruse

59'

J. Dudock← J. Imasuen

63'

M. SinanovićPenalty

77'

Y. Diezemann← E. Boakye

77'

M. Ney← Y. Erten

78'

L. Opitz

82'

B. Keskin← L. Steffen

82'

S. Abbey

87'

T. Winkelmann

88'

J. Freese← P. Kruse

Holstein

Werder

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: F. Raue

46'▲L. Steffen←▼A. Hrnjicic

77'▲Y. Diezemann←▼E. Boakye

82'▲B. Keskin←▼L. Steffen

88'▲J. Freese←▼P. Kruse

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

SteffenDiezemannKeskinFreeseMeßfeldt

Manager: C. Brand

46'▲S. Abbey←▼N. Tepe

59'▲J. Dudock←▼J. Imasuen

77'▲M. Ney←▼Y. Erten

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

AbbeyDudockNeyKäuperMashollajMaiwaldtZeqiraj

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 3–6 Werder Bremen U19

Werder Bremen U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 6-3 in U19 Bundesliga on April 15, 2023.

Goals: T. Winkelmann (10', 11', 87'), L. Urban (31'), P. Erfmann (43'), P. Kruse (58'), M. Sinanović (63' pen), L. Opitz (78'), S. Abbey (82').

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 3–6 Werder Bremen U19