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Holstein Kiel U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Holstein Kiel U19
Holstein Kiel U19
CANC
10:00
Viktoria Berlin U19
Viktoria Berlin U19
3/7/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1943%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Berlin U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel U19
2.00
Viktoria Berlin U19
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 41 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19
1.51
Viktoria Berlin U19
1.59

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19
2.08
Viktoria Berlin U19
2.49

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par
Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Viktoria Berlin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw
64%
Holstein Kiel U19 or Viktoria Berlin U19
79%
Draw or Viktoria Berlin U19
57%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+
24%
Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals
86%
Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals
59%
Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals
32%
Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals
84%
Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals
54%
Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Viktoria Berlin U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.00

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.59 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more
43%
level
21%
Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more
36%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Holstein Kiel U19 host Viktoria Berlin U19

March 7, 2021: Holstein Kiel U19 take on Viktoria Berlin U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Holstein Kiel U19 host Viktoria Berlin U19 at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.