Holstein Kiel U19 0–3 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

D. Kljajić 80'

G. Didoss 73', 55'

8/14/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1929%

×Draw21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.08

Holstein Kiel U19

1.57

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.08

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 11 away

1.51

creates per match

2.09

2.08

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

51%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

79%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

71%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

14%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

79%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

46%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

61%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

29%

level

21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

49%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

P. Behrend← H. Muqaj

55'

G. Didoss

69'

A. Soliman← A. Millgramm

73'

G. Didoss

77'

L. Millgramm← G. Didoss

80'

D. Kljajić

83'

T. Jansa← M. Sinanović

85'

J. Hartl← J. Windsor

85'

J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah← T. Koczulap

88'

S. Fobissiè← P. Meyer

Holstein

Hertha

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Raue

83'▲T. Jansa←▼M. Sinanović

88'▲S. Fobissiè←▼P. Meyer

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

JansaFobissièHrnjicicKeskinUgohMeßfeldtBuchholz

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲P. Behrend←▼H. Muqaj

69'▲A. Soliman←▼A. Millgramm

77'▲L. Millgramm←▼G. Didoss

85'▲J. Hartl←▼J. Windsor

85'▲J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah←▼T. Koczulap

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

BehrendSolimanMillgrammHartlNnaemeka-ChukwurahTurunenKarika

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2022.

Goals: G. Didoss (55', 73'), D. Kljajić (80').

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19