Holstein Kiel U19 1–1 Heidenheim U19

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Heidenheim U19

4/18/2026

U19 Bundesliga · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1932%

×Draw22%

Heidenheim U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchHeidenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.90

Holstein Kiel U19

1.54

Heidenheim U19

1.90

Heidenheim U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 71 away

1.49

creates per match

1.68

2.13

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.49

Heidenheim U19

1.68

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.13

Heidenheim U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

54%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Heidenheim U19

78%

Draw or Heidenheim U19

68%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

15%

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

79%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

45%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

20%

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

85%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

56%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.13 · 55 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.49 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Heidenheim U19 scores more

46%

Heidenheim U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff