Holstein Kiel U19 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

B. Opoku Labes 90+4', 90'

M. Grimm 3'

8/21/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 2Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1941%

×Draw22%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.73

Holstein Kiel U19

1.85

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

1.51

creates per match

1.37

2.08

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.37

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

63%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

78%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

59%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

22%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

84%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

55%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

28%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

82%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

52%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

41%

level

22%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

37%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Grimm

46'

J. Barnes← E. Rosner

54'

B. Nohns← F. Moumouni

54'

J. de Chatrie Doegl← C. Koç

54'

P. Erfmann← J. Ehlers

58'

S. Feistner← R. Sarıbaş

67'

O. Witt← T. Marquardt

71'

B. Zank← M. Grimm

80'

A. Syonmez← J. Simon

90'

B. Opoku Labes

90+4'

B. Opoku Labes

Holstein

Carl

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: E. Ostermann

54'▲B. Nohns←▼F. Moumouni

54'▲J. de Chatrie Doegl←▼C. Koç

54'▲P. Erfmann←▼J. Ehlers

67'▲O. Witt←▼T. Marquardt

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

NohnsDoeglErfmannWittSjöbergBrodersenMoje

Manager: K. Verhoene

46'▲J. Barnes←▼E. Rosner

58'▲S. Feistner←▼R. Sarıbaş

71'▲B. Zank←▼M. Grimm

80'▲A. Syonmez←▼J. Simon

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

BarnesFeistnerZankSyonmezMustafaSchmidtMüller

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 21, 2021.

Goals: M. Grimm (3'), B. Opoku Labes (90', 90+4').

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Holstein Kiel U19 vs Carl Zeiss Jena U19