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Holstein Kiel II vs Werder Bremen II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Holstein Kiel II
Holstein Kiel II
CANC
13:00
Werder Bremen II
Werder Bremen II
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3C-Platz Sittensen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Holstein Kiel II17%
×Draw18%
Werder Bremen II65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstein Kiel II
1.17
Werder Bremen II
2.46

Werder Bremen II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Holstein Kiel II
1.33
Werder Bremen II
4.25

allows per match

Holstein Kiel II
0.67
Werder Bremen II
1.00

finishing

Holstein Kiel II+0.00on par
Werder Bremen II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel II ↓

Werder Bremen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel II or draw
35%
Holstein Kiel II or Werder Bremen II
82%
Draw or Werder Bremen II
83%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel II wins by 2+
6%
Werder Bremen II wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel II 1+ goals
69%
Holstein Kiel II 2+ goals
33%
Holstein Kiel II 3+ goals
11%
Werder Bremen II 1+ goals
91%
Werder Bremen II 2+ goals
70%
Werder Bremen II 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel II (draw refunded)
20%
Werder Bremen II (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Werder Bremen II away — creates 4.25, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel II attack 1.33 + Werder Bremen II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Werder Bremen II attack 4.25 + Holstein Kiel II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Holstein Kiel II scores more
17%
level
18%
Werder Bremen II scores more
65%

Werder Bremen II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Werder Bremen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Holstein Kiel II vs Werder Bremen II — Match Preview

Holstein Kiel II face Werder Bremen II on January 20, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Holstein Kiel II host Werder Bremen II at C-Platz Sittensen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.