Holstebro 5–2 Vatanspor: Result & Stats

Holstebro

FT

5 – 2

Vatanspor

10/8/2016

League #127 · Round 10Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Holstebro59%

×Draw18%

Vatanspor22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HolstebroExpected goals in this matchVatanspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.60

Holstebro

2.65

Vatanspor

1.60

Holstebro creates 66% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

2.94

creates per match

1.64

1.56

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Holstebro

2.94

Vatanspor

1.64

allows per match

Holstebro

1.56

Vatanspor

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par

Vatanspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Vatanspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw

78%

Holstebro or Vatanspor

82%

Draw or Vatanspor

41%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+

39%

Vatanspor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals

93%

Holstebro 2+ goals

74%

Holstebro 3+ goals

48%

Vatanspor 1+ goals

80%

Vatanspor 2+ goals

47%

Vatanspor 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)

73%

Vatanspor (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 2.94, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Vatanspor away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 2.94 + Vatanspor defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.65

Vatanspor attack 1.64 + Holstebro defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Holstebro scores more

59%

level

18%

Vatanspor scores more

22%

Holstebro at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff