Holstebro 3–1 Vanløse: Result & Stats | 3. Division

Holstebro

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vanløse

9/23/2023

3. Division · Round 8Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Holstebro42%

×Draw25%

Vanløse33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HolstebroExpected goals in this matchVanløse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.31

Holstebro

1.53

Vanløse

1.31

Holstebro creates 17% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

1.54

creates per match

1.05

1.58

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Holstebro

1.54

Vanløse

1.05

allows per match

Holstebro

1.58

Vanløse

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par

Vanløse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Vanløse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw

67%

Holstebro or Vanløse

75%

Draw or Vanløse

58%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+

21%

Vanløse wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals

78%

Holstebro 2+ goals

45%

Holstebro 3+ goals

20%

Vanløse 1+ goals

73%

Vanløse 2+ goals

38%

Vanløse 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)

57%

Vanløse (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.58 · 48 matches

Vanløse away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 1.54 + Vanløse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Vanløse attack 1.05 + Holstebro defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Holstebro scores more

42%

level

25%

Vanløse scores more

33%

Holstebro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff