Holstebro 5–1 Randers Freja: Result & Stats

Holstebro

FT

5 – 1

Randers Freja

5/14/2017

League #127 · Round 22Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Holstebro87%

×Draw8%

Randers Freja5%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HolstebroExpected goals in this matchRanders Freja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.75

1.25

Holstebro

4.75

Randers Freja

1.25

Holstebro creates 280% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

4.75

creates per match

1.25

allows per match

4.75

creates per match

Holstebro

4.75

Randers Freja

1.25

allows per match

Holstebro

1.25

Randers Freja

4.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par

Randers Freja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Randers Freja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–07%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 60% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

64%36%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw

95%

Holstebro or Randers Freja

92%

Draw or Randers Freja

13%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+

74%

Randers Freja wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals

99%

Holstebro 2+ goals

94%

Holstebro 3+ goals

82%

Randers Freja 1+ goals

71%

Randers Freja 2+ goals

36%

Randers Freja 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)

94%

Randers Freja (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 4.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Randers Freja away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 4.75 + Randers Freja defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 4.75

Randers Freja attack 1.25 + Holstebro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Holstebro scores more

87%

level

8%

Randers Freja scores more

5%

Holstebro at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff