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Holstebro vs Holbæk B&I — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Holstebro
Holstebro
FT
1 – 3
Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
H. Gamys 11' (OG)
M. Sjorslev 84' (pen)
F. Nymark 38'
M. Bobjerg Larsen 12'
5/9/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Holstebro38%
×Draw24%
Holbæk B&I38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holstebro
1.55
Holbæk B&I
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 23 away

creates per match

Holstebro
1.23
Holbæk B&I
1.04

allows per match

Holstebro
2.08
Holbæk B&I
1.87

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par
Holbæk B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Holbæk B&I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw
62%
Holstebro or Holbæk B&I
76%
Draw or Holbæk B&I
62%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+
18%
Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals
79%
Holstebro 2+ goals
46%
Holstebro 3+ goals
20%
Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
79%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
46%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)
50%
Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Holbæk B&I away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 1.23 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.55

Holbæk B&I attack 1.04 + Holstebro defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Holstebro scores more
38%
level
24%
Holbæk B&I scores more
38%

Holstebro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
H. GamysOwn goal
12'
M. Bobjerg Larsen
38'
F. Nymark
80'
J. Illum
80'
J. Illum
84'
M. SjorslevPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holstebro vs Holbæk B&I

Holbæk B&I beat Holstebro 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 9, 2021.

Goals: H. Gamys (11' o.g.), M. Bobjerg Larsen (12'), F. Nymark (38'), M. Sjorslev (84' pen).

The match was played at Holstebro Idrætspark in Holstebro.