Holstebro 2–0 Dalum: Result & Stats | 3. Division

Holstebro

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dalum

4/30/2023

3. Division · Relegation Round - 3Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Holstebro59%

×Draw21%

Dalum20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HolstebroExpected goals in this matchDalum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.12

Holstebro

2.06

Dalum

1.12

Holstebro creates 84% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

1.54

creates per match

0.66

1.58

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Holstebro

1.54

Dalum

0.66

allows per match

Holstebro

1.58

Dalum

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par

Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Dalum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw

80%

Holstebro or Dalum

79%

Draw or Dalum

41%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+

36%

Dalum wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals

87%

Holstebro 2+ goals

61%

Holstebro 3+ goals

34%

Dalum 1+ goals

67%

Dalum 2+ goals

31%

Dalum 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)

74%

Dalum (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.58 · 48 matches

Dalum away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 1.54 + Dalum defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dalum attack 0.66 + Holstebro defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Holstebro scores more

59%

level

21%

Dalum scores more

20%

Holstebro at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Holstebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff