Holstebro 1–3 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Holstebro

FT

1 – 3

Aarhus Fremad

M. Valentin 82' (OG)

S. Andreasen 68', 3'

C. Bech 39'

5/24/2021

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Holstebro Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Holstebro24%

×Draw23%

Aarhus Fremad53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HolstebroExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.85

Holstebro

1.19

Aarhus Fremad

1.85

Aarhus Fremad creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 81 away

1.23

creates per match

1.63

2.08

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Holstebro

1.23

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

Holstebro

2.08

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstebro+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstebro ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Holstebro or draw

47%

Holstebro or Aarhus Fremad

77%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

76%

Winning margin

Holstebro wins by 2+

10%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Holstebro 1+ goals

70%

Holstebro 2+ goals

33%

Holstebro 3+ goals

12%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

84%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

55%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Holstebro (draw refunded)

32%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstebro at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstebro attack 1.23 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Holstebro defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Holstebro scores more

24%

level

23%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

53%

Aarhus Fremad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

S. Andreasen

39'

C. Bech

68'

S. Andreasen

82'

M. ValentinOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff