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Holon Yermiyahu vs Maccabi Ashdod — State Cup 2019

Holon Yermiyahu
Holon Yermiyahu
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
1/10/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundHolon Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Holon Yermiyahu32%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Ashdod45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holon Yermiyahu
1.58
Maccabi Ashdod
1.90

Maccabi Ashdod creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Holon Yermiyahu
1.67
Maccabi Ashdod
2.13

allows per match

Holon Yermiyahu
1.67
Maccabi Ashdod
1.50

finishing

Holon Yermiyahu+0.00on par
Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holon Yermiyahu ↓

Maccabi Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Holon Yermiyahu or draw
55%
Holon Yermiyahu or Maccabi Ashdod
78%
Draw or Maccabi Ashdod
68%

Winning margin

Holon Yermiyahu wins by 2+
15%
Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Holon Yermiyahu 1+ goals
79%
Holon Yermiyahu 2+ goals
47%
Holon Yermiyahu 3+ goals
21%
Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
85%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
56%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Holon Yermiyahu (draw refunded)
42%
Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holon Yermiyahu at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Maccabi Ashdod away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holon Yermiyahu attack 1.67 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Maccabi Ashdod attack 2.13 + Holon Yermiyahu defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Holon Yermiyahu scores more
32%
level
22%
Maccabi Ashdod scores more
45%

Maccabi Ashdod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maccabi Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Holon Yermiyahu 0–3 Maccabi Ashdod

Maccabi Ashdod beat Holon Yermiyahu 3-0 in State Cup on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Holon Municipal Stadium in Holon.