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Hollenbach vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Hollenbach
Hollenbach
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Villingen II
Villingen II
9/21/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 9Jako-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hollenbach69%
×Draw17%
Villingen II14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hollenbach
2.51
Villingen II
1.03

Hollenbach creates 144% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hollenbach
1.90
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

Hollenbach
1.47
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw
86%
Hollenbach or Villingen II
83%
Draw or Villingen II
31%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+
47%
Villingen II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals
92%
Hollenbach 2+ goals
71%
Hollenbach 3+ goals
45%
Villingen II 1+ goals
64%
Villingen II 2+ goals
28%
Villingen II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)
83%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.51

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hollenbach scores more
69%
level
17%
Villingen II scores more
14%

Hollenbach at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Hollenbach 4–0 Villingen II

Hollenbach beat Villingen II 4-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Jako-Arena in Mulfingen.