Hollenbach 6–3 Leinfelden-Echterdingen

Hollenbach

FT

6 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

5/31/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34Jako-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Hollenbach64%

×Draw19%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HollenbachExpected goals in this matchLeinfelden-Echterdingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.15

Hollenbach

2.39

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

1.15

Hollenbach creates 108% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.90

creates per match

0.82

1.47

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Hollenbach

1.90

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

0.82

allows per match

Hollenbach

1.47

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par

Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

Leinfelden-Echterdingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw

83%

Hollenbach or Leinfelden-Echterdingen

81%

Draw or Leinfelden-Echterdingen

36%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+

42%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals

91%

Hollenbach 2+ goals

69%

Hollenbach 3+ goals

42%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals

68%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals

32%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)

79%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.39

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 0.82 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hollenbach scores more

64%

level

19%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more

17%

Hollenbach at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff