Hollenbach 4–0 Freiburger FC: Result & Stats

Hollenbach

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Freiburger FC

B. Kurz 88'

M. Specht 75'

L. Minder 39'

J. Limbach 19'

4/15/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 27Jako-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hollenbach53%

×Draw22%

Freiburger FC25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HollenbachExpected goals in this matchFreiburger FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.29

Hollenbach

1.98

Freiburger FC

1.29

Hollenbach creates 53% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 42 away

1.90

creates per match

1.12

1.47

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Hollenbach

1.90

Freiburger FC

1.12

allows per match

Hollenbach

1.47

Freiburger FC

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

Freiburger FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw

75%

Hollenbach or Freiburger FC

78%

Draw or Freiburger FC

47%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+

31%

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals

86%

Hollenbach 2+ goals

59%

Hollenbach 3+ goals

31%

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

72%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

37%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)

68%

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.98

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hollenbach scores more

53%

level

22%

Freiburger FC scores more

25%

Hollenbach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

J. Limbach

39'

L. Minder

75'

M. Specht

88'

B. Kurz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff