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Hollenbach vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Hollenbach
Hollenbach
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
S. Schmitt 89'
L. Minder 76'
M. Uhl 18'
J. Schlimbach 10'
8/27/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Jako-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hollenbach52%
×Draw22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hollenbach
2.01
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.36

Hollenbach creates 48% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 42 away

creates per match

Hollenbach
1.90
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.26

allows per match

Hollenbach
1.47
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.12

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par
FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw
74%
Hollenbach or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
78%
Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
48%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+
30%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals
87%
Hollenbach 2+ goals
59%
Hollenbach 3+ goals
32%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
74%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
39%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)
67%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.01

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hollenbach scores more
52%
level
22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
26%

Hollenbach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
J. Schlimbach
18'
M. Uhl
76'
L. Minder
89'
S. Schmitt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hollenbach 4 – 0 FC Rielasingen-Arlen

Hollenbach beat FC Rielasingen-Arlen 4-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 27, 2022.

Goals: J. Schlimbach (10'), M. Uhl (18'), L. Minder (76'), S. Schmitt (89').

The match was played at Jako-Arena in Mulfingen.