Hollenbach 2–1 Backnang: Result & Stats

Hollenbach

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Backnang

5/18/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Kunstrasenplatz Hollenbach am Vereinsheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hollenbach46%

×Draw22%

Backnang32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HollenbachExpected goals in this matchBacknang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.52

Hollenbach

1.86

Backnang

1.52

Hollenbach creates 22% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 93 away

1.90

creates per match

1.57

1.47

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Hollenbach

1.90

Backnang

1.57

allows per match

Hollenbach

1.47

Backnang

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hollenbach+0.00on par

Backnang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollenbach ↓

Backnang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hollenbach or draw

68%

Hollenbach or Backnang

78%

Draw or Backnang

54%

Winning margin

Hollenbach wins by 2+

25%

Backnang wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hollenbach 1+ goals

84%

Hollenbach 2+ goals

55%

Hollenbach 3+ goals

28%

Backnang 1+ goals

78%

Backnang 2+ goals

45%

Backnang 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hollenbach (draw refunded)

59%

Backnang (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollenbach at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

Backnang away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.82 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollenbach attack 1.90 + Backnang defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.86

Backnang attack 1.57 + Hollenbach defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hollenbach scores more

46%

level

22%

Backnang scores more

32%

Hollenbach at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hollenbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff