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Hollandia vs OSS '20 — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Hollandia
Hollandia
CANC
13:00
OSS '20
OSS '20
11/1/2020Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 9Juliana Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hollandia38%
×Draw26%
OSS '2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hollandia
1.39
OSS '20
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 65 away

creates per match

Hollandia
1.11
OSS '20
1.48

allows per match

Hollandia
1.21
OSS '20
1.66

finishing

Hollandia+0.00on par
OSS '20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hollandia ↓

OSS '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hollandia or draw
64%
Hollandia or OSS '20
74%
Draw or OSS '20
62%

Winning margin

Hollandia wins by 2+
18%
OSS '20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hollandia 1+ goals
75%
Hollandia 2+ goals
40%
Hollandia 3+ goals
16%
OSS '20 1+ goals
74%
OSS '20 2+ goals
39%
OSS '20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hollandia (draw refunded)
52%
OSS '20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hollandia at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

OSS '20 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hollandia attack 1.11 + OSS '20 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

OSS '20 attack 1.48 + Hollandia defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hollandia scores more
38%
level
26%
OSS '20 scores more
36%

Hollandia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hollandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hollandia host OSS '20

November 1, 2020: Hollandia take on OSS '20 in Derde Divisie - Sunday. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hollandia host OSS '20 at Juliana Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.