Holland Park Hawks 5–1 Southside Eagles

Holland Park Hawks

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Southside Eagles

5/3/2025

Queensland Premier League · Round 9Whites Hill Reserve 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Holland Park Hawks45%

×Draw21%

Southside Eagles33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holland Park HawksExpected goals in this matchSouthside Eagles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.71

Holland Park Hawks

2.02

Southside Eagles

1.71

Holland Park Hawks creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 53 away

1.83

creates per match

1.26

2.17

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Holland Park Hawks

1.83

Southside Eagles

1.26

allows per match

Holland Park Hawks

2.17

Southside Eagles

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holland Park Hawks+0.00on par

Southside Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holland Park Hawks ↓

Southside Eagles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Holland Park Hawks or draw

67%

Holland Park Hawks or Southside Eagles

79%

Draw or Southside Eagles

55%

Winning margin

Holland Park Hawks wins by 2+

26%

Southside Eagles wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Holland Park Hawks 1+ goals

87%

Holland Park Hawks 2+ goals

60%

Holland Park Hawks 3+ goals

33%

Southside Eagles 1+ goals

82%

Southside Eagles 2+ goals

51%

Southside Eagles 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Holland Park Hawks (draw refunded)

58%

Southside Eagles (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holland Park Hawks at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Southside Eagles away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holland Park Hawks attack 1.83 + Southside Eagles defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.02

Southside Eagles attack 1.26 + Holland Park Hawks defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Holland Park Hawks scores more

45%

level

21%

Southside Eagles scores more

33%

Holland Park Hawks at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Holland Park Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff