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Holland Park Hawks vs Mitchelton — Queensland Premier League 2026

Holland Park Hawks
Holland Park Hawks
FT
2 – 1
Mitchelton
Mitchelton
3/27/2021Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 3Whites Hill Reserve 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Holland Park Hawks49%
×Draw20%
Mitchelton30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holland Park Hawks
2.25
Mitchelton
1.75

Holland Park Hawks creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 43 away

creates per match

Holland Park Hawks
1.83
Mitchelton
1.33

allows per match

Holland Park Hawks
2.17
Mitchelton
2.67

finishing

Holland Park Hawks+0.00on par
Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holland Park Hawks ↓

Mitchelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Holland Park Hawks or draw
70%
Holland Park Hawks or Mitchelton
80%
Draw or Mitchelton
51%

Winning margin

Holland Park Hawks wins by 2+
29%
Mitchelton wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Holland Park Hawks 1+ goals
89%
Holland Park Hawks 2+ goals
65%
Holland Park Hawks 3+ goals
39%
Mitchelton 1+ goals
83%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
52%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Holland Park Hawks (draw refunded)
62%
Mitchelton (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holland Park Hawks at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holland Park Hawks attack 1.83 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.25

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Holland Park Hawks defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Holland Park Hawks scores more
49%
level
20%
Mitchelton scores more
30%

Holland Park Hawks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Holland Park Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Holland Park Hawks 2–1 Mitchelton

Holland Park Hawks beat Mitchelton 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Whites Hill Reserve 1 in Brisbane.