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Holešov vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Holešov
Holešov
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
8/5/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 1Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Holešov54%
×Draw21%
Nový Jičín25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holešov
2.10
Nový Jičín
1.38

Holešov creates 52% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Holešov
1.87
Nový Jičín
1.07

allows per match

Holešov
1.68
Nový Jičín
2.33

finishing

Holešov+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holešov ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Holešov or draw
75%
Holešov or Nový Jičín
79%
Draw or Nový Jičín
46%

Winning margin

Holešov wins by 2+
32%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Holešov 1+ goals
88%
Holešov 2+ goals
62%
Holešov 3+ goals
35%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
75%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
40%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Holešov (draw refunded)
68%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holešov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holešov attack 1.87 + Nový Jičín defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.10

Nový Jičín attack 1.07 + Holešov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Holešov scores more
54%
level
21%
Nový Jičín scores more
25%

Holešov at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Holešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holešov vs Nový Jičín

Holešov beat Nový Jičín 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Holešov.