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Holešov vs Jiskra Rýmařov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Holešov
Holešov
FT
7 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
8/19/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 3Stadion Střelnice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Holešov50%
×Draw22%
Jiskra Rýmařov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holešov
2.04
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.48

Holešov creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Holešov
1.87
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.27

allows per match

Holešov
1.68
Jiskra Rýmařov
2.20

finishing

Holešov+0.00on par
Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holešov ↓

Jiskra Rýmařov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Holešov or draw
72%
Holešov or Jiskra Rýmařov
78%
Draw or Jiskra Rýmařov
50%

Winning margin

Holešov wins by 2+
29%
Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Holešov 1+ goals
87%
Holešov 2+ goals
60%
Holešov 3+ goals
33%
Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
77%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
43%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Holešov (draw refunded)
64%
Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holešov at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

Jiskra Rýmařov away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holešov attack 1.87 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.27 + Holešov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Holešov scores more
50%
level
22%
Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
28%

Holešov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Holešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holešov vs Jiskra Rýmařov

Holešov beat Jiskra Rýmařov 7-2 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Střelnice in Holešov.