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Holbæk B&I vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
FT
1 – 1
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
M. Bobjerg Larsen 90'
Y. Dieudonne 18'
5/24/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Holbæk Sportsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Holbæk B&I38%
×Draw25%
Thisted FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holbæk B&I
1.49
Thisted FC
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 87 away

creates per match

Holbæk B&I
1.50
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

Holbæk B&I
1.71
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holbæk B&I ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Holbæk B&I or draw
63%
Holbæk B&I or Thisted FC
75%
Draw or Thisted FC
62%

Winning margin

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
18%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
77%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
44%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
19%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
77%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
43%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
51%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holbæk B&I at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holbæk B&I attack 1.50 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Holbæk B&I scores more
38%
level
25%
Thisted FC scores more
37%

Holbæk B&I at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Holbæk B&I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Y. Dieudonne
90'
M. Bobjerg Larsen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Holbæk B&I 1–1 Thisted FC

Holbæk B&I and Thisted FC drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 24, 2021.

Goals: Y. Dieudonne (18'), M. Bobjerg Larsen (90').

The match was played at Holbæk Sportsby in Holbæk.