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Holbæk B&I vs Silkeborg KFUM — 3. Division 2021

Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Silkeborg KFUM
Silkeborg KFUM
9/2/20233. Division3. Division · Round 5Holbæk Sportsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Holbæk B&I45%
×Draw24%
Silkeborg KFUM31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holbæk B&I
1.69
Silkeborg KFUM
1.38

Holbæk B&I creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 64 away

creates per match

Holbæk B&I
1.90
Silkeborg KFUM
1.50

allows per match

Holbæk B&I
1.25
Silkeborg KFUM
1.47

finishing

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par
Silkeborg KFUM+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holbæk B&I ↓

Silkeborg KFUM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Holbæk B&I or draw
69%
Holbæk B&I or Silkeborg KFUM
76%
Draw or Silkeborg KFUM
55%

Winning margin

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
23%
Silkeborg KFUM wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
82%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
50%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
24%
Silkeborg KFUM 1+ goals
75%
Silkeborg KFUM 2+ goals
40%
Silkeborg KFUM 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
59%
Silkeborg KFUM (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holbæk B&I at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Silkeborg KFUM away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holbæk B&I attack 1.90 + Silkeborg KFUM defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Silkeborg KFUM attack 1.50 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Holbæk B&I scores more
45%
level
24%
Silkeborg KFUM scores more
31%

Holbæk B&I at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Holbæk B&I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holbæk B&I vs Silkeborg KFUM

Holbæk B&I and Silkeborg KFUM drew 1-1 in 3. Division on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Holbæk Sportsby in Holbæk.