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Holbæk B&I vs Dalum — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
FT
2 – 4
Dalum
Dalum
T. Hall 90+4'
G. Gjog 67'
M. Raben 74'
K. Mikkelsen 40'
J. Fechtenburg 37'
M. Schiling 24'
5/2/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Holbæk Sportsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Holbæk B&I40%
×Draw24%
Dalum35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holbæk B&I
1.56
Dalum
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

creates per match

Holbæk B&I
1.50
Dalum
1.16

allows per match

Holbæk B&I
1.71
Dalum
1.63

finishing

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par
Dalum+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holbæk B&I ↓

Dalum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Holbæk B&I or draw
65%
Holbæk B&I or Dalum
76%
Draw or Dalum
60%

Winning margin

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
20%
Dalum wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
79%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
46%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
21%
Dalum 1+ goals
76%
Dalum 2+ goals
42%
Dalum 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
53%
Dalum (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holbæk B&I at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

Dalum away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holbæk B&I attack 1.50 + Dalum defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dalum attack 1.16 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Holbæk B&I scores more
40%
level
24%
Dalum scores more
35%

Holbæk B&I at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Holbæk B&I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
M. Schiling
37'
J. Fechtenburg
40'
K. Mikkelsen
67'
G. Gjog
74'
M. Raben
90+4'
T. Hall

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holbæk B&I vs Dalum

Dalum beat Holbæk B&I 4-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Schiling (24'), J. Fechtenburg (37'), K. Mikkelsen (40'), G. Gjog (67'), M. Raben (74'), T. Hall (90+4').

The match was played at Holbæk Sportsby in Holbæk.