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Holbæk B&I vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
FT
3 – 0
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
J. Bengtsson 90+3'
F. Bangsgaard 64'
M. Sjorslev 18'
10/11/20202nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Holbæk Sportsby

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Holbæk B&I30%
×Draw24%
Aarhus Fremad46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holbæk B&I
1.33
Aarhus Fremad
1.69

Aarhus Fremad creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 81 away

creates per match

Holbæk B&I
1.52
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

Holbæk B&I
1.76
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holbæk B&I ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Holbæk B&I or draw
54%
Holbæk B&I or Aarhus Fremad
76%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
70%

Winning margin

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
13%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
74%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
38%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
15%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
82%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
50%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
40%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holbæk B&I at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.76 · 25 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holbæk B&I attack 1.52 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Holbæk B&I scores more
30%
level
24%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
46%

Aarhus Fremad at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Sjorslev
64'
F. Bangsgaard
90+3'
J. Bengtsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Holbæk B&I 3–0 Aarhus Fremad

Holbæk B&I beat Aarhus Fremad 3-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 11, 2020.

Goals: M. Sjorslev (18'), F. Bangsgaard (64'), J. Bengtsson (90+3').

The match was played at Holbæk Sportsby in Holbæk.